The New York Knicks had a season full of turbulence. A surprising NBA Cup victory over the San Antonio Spurs sat alongside a painful 2-9 stretch and narrow wins over a Golden State Warriors squad missing both Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. By the end of the regular season, the Knicks finished 53-29 and locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Their reward is a first-round date with the Atlanta Hawks, who finished sixth at 46-36 and quietly became one of the most unpredictable teams in the league.
According to Kalshi, New York holds a 70% probability of winning the series, with a spread of 1.5 games suggesting the market expects a five or six-game finish. But those closest to the game have started to wonder whether the Knicks should be on upset alert.
How the Knicks are built for this moment
New York’s foundation runs through Jalen Brunson. In last year’s postseason, the Knicks’ floor general averaged 29.4 points, 7.0 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game, shooting 46.1% from the field. He is the engine, and the Knicks go as far as he takes them.
Surrounding Brunson is a roster that looks considerably deeper than it did a year ago. Karl-Anthony Towns brings size and scoring alongside him in the frontcourt. OG Anunoby will likely draw the assignment of shadowing Jalen Johnson, Atlanta’s most dynamic threat. Mikal Bridges remains an important variable on both ends of the floor, and Mitchell Robinson provides a physical presence on the offensive glass.
The additions of Jose Alvarado at the trade deadline and Jordan Clarkson in the offseason have given the team a more reliable second unit. Bench depth was a weakness in previous postseason runs. This year, it appears to be a genuine strength.
Atlanta’s Brunson-level threat and unlikely rise
The Hawks’ path to the playoffs was nothing short of chaotic. The season opened with a clear plan around Trae Young, supported by Kristaps Porzingis as a proven scoring option. That plan collapsed fast. Young looked more effective when he was sidelined than when he was healthy, and Porzingis dealt with a prolonged, unclear illness that left the organization without answers. By January, the tension between Young and the front office spilled into a trade that sent him to the Washington Wizards. Porzingis was later dealt for Jonathan Kuminga.
With Atlanta sitting at 27-31 heading into March, most observers assumed the Hawks were managing toward the offseason. Then something shifted. They won 18 of their next 20 games, overtaking both the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat in the standings. Nickeil Alexander-Walker took on a featured role and held up under the weight of it. Jalen Johnson, 24, reached a different level entirely, posting 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game on his way to his first All-Star selection.
The roster the Hawks are bringing to Madison Square Garden barely resembles what they envisioned in October. That may actually work in their favor.
What this series comes down to
The Knicks took two of three regular-season meetings against Atlanta, but those games were played before the Hawks completed their transformation. New York’s depth, home court, and playoff experience make them the sensible pick. Brunson’s history in high-pressure moments reinforces that view.
Still, a Hawks team that just won 18 of 20 to end the season is not simply showing up to compete. Johnson is capable of making life difficult for any defense, and Alexander-Walker has proven he can handle a lead role. Whether Atlanta has enough to extend this series to seven games remains an open question. That it is even being asked says something about how far this Hawks team has come.
