Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira meet for the second time Tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with Holloway’s BMF title on the line and 11 years of individual evolution separating their first bout from this one. Their 2015 matchup ended in under two minutes when Holloway won via an apparent esophagus injury suffered by Oliveira, a conclusion so abrupt that it barely registered as a real fight. What follows Saturday night should be nothing of the sort.
UFC 326 streams live on Paramount Plus, which replaced the traditional pay-per-view model for UFC numbered events. Early prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET, prelims at 7 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 9 p.m. ET. Subscriptions to Paramount Plus start at $8.99 per month for the ad-supported plan, with a premium ad-free option available at $13.99 per month.
Main event breakdown and prediction
Holloway has made the case convincingly that he belongs at lightweight. His fifth-round knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 in April 2024 established the BMF title as something worth chasing, and his unanimous decision over Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 last July made him the first fighter to successfully defend the belt. His ability to handle Poirier’s power and volume in hostile territory, in front of a New Orleans crowd, confirmed that his move to 155 pounds was not circumstantial.
Oliveira brings a different problem. He is the UFC’s all-time submission leader and one of the most complete finishers the sport has seen, combining elite grappling with heavy hands and suffocating clinch work. His second-round submission of Mateusz Gamrot in October showed him operating at a high level heading into this rematch.
The factor that makes Holloway a reasonable pick despite Oliveira’s overall finishing ability is defensive output. Holloway is not easily put away, absorbing punishment from elite strikers across multiple title fights without ever being finished cleanly until his loss to Ilia Topuria at featherweight. He is smart enough to avoid giving Oliveira easy paths to the mat, and his high-volume cage control tends to win the exchanges that go the distance.
Pick: Holloway
Co-main and undercard predictions
Caio Borralho takes on Reinier de Ridder at middleweight in the co-main event, with both fighters coming off losses and looking to reset their positioning in the division. De Ridder’s primary weapons on the feet are his rangy knees and clinch trips, but Borralho’s boxing is tight enough to counter and find the chin even while absorbing that output. Both men are accomplished grapplers, which tends to cancel out at 185 pounds and produce a striking-based decision.
Pick: Borralho
Raul Rosas Jr. faces Rob Font at bantamweight in what is a clear prospect versus veteran matchup. Rosas Jr., 21, should be targeting Font’s historically unreliable takedown defense and looking to drag the fight to the mat as early as possible. Font is one of the division’s best pure boxers and dangerous on the feet, but his path to winning requires keeping Rosas Jr. standing for the majority of the fight.
Pick: Font
Michael Johnson and Drew Dober meet at lightweight in a fight that figures to stay on the feet and get messy quickly. Johnson, at 39, is on his first three-fight win streak in a decade and carries the sharper counter-punching game. Dober’s aggressive forward pressure and heavy hands make him dangerous, but his chin has become a liability.
Pick: Johnson
Gregory Rodrigues takes on Brunno Ferreira in a middleweight rematch that is likely to end early. Rodrigues blends power with underrated grappling, while Ferreira fights with explosive urgency that can work against him in longer exchanges. Rodrigues should have the edge if the fight extends past the first few minutes.
Pick: Rodrigues
Full UFC 326 fight card and odds
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira, BMF title, lightweights, Holloway -220, Oliveira +170
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder, middleweights, Borralho -250, de Ridder +205
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Rob Font, bantamweights, Rosas Jr. -270, Font +220
Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober, lightweights, Johnson -118, Dober -102
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira, middleweights, Rodrigues -162, Ferreira +136
Xiao Long vs. Cody Garbrandt, bantamweights, Long -155, Garbrandt +130
Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage, middleweights, Johnson -800, Brundage +550
Alberto Montes vs. Ricky Turcios, featherweights, Montes -180, Turcios +150
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs. Cody Durden, flyweights, Tumendemberel -162, Durden +136
Su Mudaerji vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar, flyweights, Mudaerji -218, Aguilar +180
Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay, light heavyweights, Tobias -180, Nurgozhay +150
Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato, light heavyweights, Fernandez -218, Bellato +180
