Coco Gauff’s clay season is officially underway, and it is not starting with a soft opener. The reigning French Open champion faces Liudmila Samsonova in the second round of the 2026 Stuttgart Open Today, beginning a title defense that carries serious weight after one of the best seasons of her career.
Gauff arrives in Stuttgart off the back of a strong run at the 2026 Miami Open, where she reached the final before falling to Aryna Sabalenka. Her overall record in 2026 stands at 16-6, and her career win rate on clay sits at 73%. For most opponents, those numbers would be enough to settle the matter before the first serve. Samsonova, however, is not most opponents on this surface.
Samsonova’s record against Gauff on clay
The head-to-head tells a clean story on the surface. Gauff leads 3-0, with wins on clay at Charleston and Linz, and one on hard court in Washington. But the scorelines from those clay matches paint a more complicated picture. Samsonova took the first set in both meetings before the American steadied herself and pulled away.
At the 2019 Linz Open, Samsonova won the opening set 7-6 before Gauff won the next two 6-2 and 6-2. At the 2021 Charleston Open, Samsonova again forced a three-set match, dropping the first set 4-6 before Gauff closed it out 6-1, 6-4 in the final two sets. Both times, Samsonova made the match uncomfortable before Gauff’s composure took over.
That pattern matters heading into Thursday’s match. Gauff will be playing her first clay-court match of 2026, which means she arrives without the match sharpness that comes with recent time on the surface. Samsonova, by contrast, has already played twice on clay this season, going 1-1. She also enters on the back of a confident 6-0, 6-4 win over Antonia Ruzic in the first round, which was her fifth win across 14 matches in 2026.
What the Gauff matchup will likely look like
Gauff’s clay credentials are not in question. A 73% win rate on the surface is the mark of a player who genuinely thrives on it, not one who simply tolerates clay as a bridge between hard-court seasons. Her movement, her consistency from the baseline, and her ability to construct points over long rallies make her a different kind of problem on slow courts.
Samsonova owns a 58% win rate on clay, which is a solid but not elite number. Her game is more comfortable on faster surfaces, and her recent results reflect a player who has been inconsistent. Losses to Lilli Tagger, Hailey Baptiste, Leylah Fernandez, and Magdalena Frech in recent weeks suggest she has not been at her sharpest heading into the clay swing.
Still, history says this match is unlikely to be one-sided. Samsonova has a way of making Gauff work on clay, and the expectation that Gauff will need an adjustment period after her first match on the surface this year is reasonable. The total for this match is set at over/under 19.5 games, which reflects the belief that Samsonova will push the champion into a deep, physical contest rather than an easy afternoon.
The forecast for Stuttgart
Gauff is the clear favorite and the sensible pick to advance. Her clay record, current form, and head-to-head advantage all point in the same direction. A projected scoreline of 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 would fit the pattern of their previous meetings perfectly. Gauff wins, but not before Samsonova makes her earn every game of it.
The smarter play may be less about who wins and more about how long it takes. Given Samsonova’s history of stretching Gauff on clay and her early-season match fitness advantage on the surface, a lengthy three-set match feels like the most likely outcome.
