Tax season started on January 26, but if you’re counting on a quick refund deposit, reality is about to disappoint you. The IRS is projecting an additional $100 billion in refunds on top of last year’s $328.88 billion payout, which sounds generous until you realize the agency is severely understaffed and drowning in new tax code complexity. A perfect storm of staffing shortages, lingering backlogs and more than 100 changes to the tax code is creating genuine chaos for both the IRS and millions of Americans hoping to see refund money by spring.
The National Taxpayer Advocate is essentially warning everyone to brace for delays and confusion. Between workforce reductions that have rolled staffing back to 2021 levels and a government shutdown that furloughed thousands of employees last fall, the agency is struggling before filing season even hits full stride. President Trump’s recently enacted tax package introduced massive changes to the tax code, and the combination of reduced staff and complex new rules is basically a recipe for processing slowdowns that could frustrate millions.
Staffing cuts and shutdowns have created mounting backlogs
A Treasury memo painted a genuinely concerning picture of the IRS’s current state. Recent workforce reductions have brought staffing back to October 2021 levels—exactly when the agency was still buried in pandemic-related paperwork. The timing is genuinely terrible, as major backlogs including amended returns and taxpayer correspondence have been growing substantially rather than shrinking.
The October 2025 government shutdown made everything worse. The IRS remained funded for only five business days before furloughing roughly 59 percent of workers in critical filing season roles on October 8. Those employees sat home without pay while the rest tried to handle an already overwhelming workload. The shutdown lasted from October 1 through November 13, 2025, and the damage to processing capabilities is still being felt.
Treasury officials acknowledged that the IRS had been making progress on reducing its pandemic backlog. But as of December 2025, overall inventory levels in major return processing areas have climbed back up. The culprits are straightforward: staffing reductions combined with the shutdown fallout. This is the worst possible time for the agency to be understaffed.
Complex tax rules are basically a minefield for taxpayers
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced more than 100 changes to the tax code, including expanded deductions for tip income, overtime pay, auto loan interest, additional deductions for seniors and higher maximum deductions for state and local taxes. The problem isn’t that these benefits exist. The problem is that the eligibility rules are genuinely complicated.
Take the No Tax on Car Loan Interest deduction. To claim it, you must enter a 17-digit vehicle identification number on Schedule 1-A to prove your 2025 vehicle was assembled in the United States. Miss that detail or enter it incorrectly, and your refund could be delayed for weeks. Multiply that complexity across 100 different tax code changes, and you understand why the National Taxpayer Advocate is worried about filing errors.
These expanded benefits affect taxpayers who itemize deductions and those claiming the standard deduction, meaning millions of filers will calculate returns differently this year. Tax software can help navigate some of the new rules, but taxpayers still must understand the requirements themselves. That’s where the bottleneck happens.
How to track your refund while you wait
While you’re waiting, both the IRS and state revenue departments offer online tools to check refund status. The IRS provides a Where’s My Refund tool at irs.gov/refunds and through the IRS2Go mobile app. Refund status should appear approximately 24 hours after e-filing, though paper returns take about four weeks to show up in the system. The data updates once daily, usually overnight, so checking multiple times daily won’t give new information.
For state residents, your state Department of Revenue likely has its own Where’s My Refund tool where you can check individual income tax returns and amended returns filed within the last year. You’ll need your Social Security number and expected refund amount. It can take up to a week after electronic filing for tracking information to appear.
What the timeline actually looks like this year
The standard timeline remains 21 days for e-filed returns and four weeks or more for paper returns. But those deadlines could stretch significantly longer if your return requires corrections or additional review. The federal tax filing deadline is April 15, 2026, though you can request an automatic six-month extension if needed. Just remember that an extension to file isn’t an extension to pay taxes owed.
The success of this filing season will be defined by how well the IRS assists millions of taxpayers who experience problems. With staffing levels equivalent to 2021 and new tax code complexity unprecedented in recent memory, that assistance might not arrive quickly.
