Rookies have brought renewed excitement to the NFC South after a prolonged drought since genuine championship contention graced the division. Atlanta and Carolina last represented the conference in consecutive Super Bowls during the 2015-16 campaigns, but the years since have painted a far different picture.
Recent seasons have exposed the division’s weakness. Three of the past four years failed to produce a team winning more than nine games. Carolina barely scraped into the postseason as a wild card after Atlanta defeated New Orleans in the final regular-season matchup, simultaneously ending Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes.
Yet as franchises prepare for free agency and the 2026 draft, genuine optimism has returned. Four teams boast impressive first-year rookies, including offensive rookie of the year contenders Tyler Shough from New Orleans, Tetairoa McMillan from Carolina, and Emeka Egbuka from Tampa Bay. Defensive honors could land with Atlanta’s rookies Xavier Watts or James Pearce Jr.
The question now centers on whether this influx of talented rookies can reverse years of mediocrity and restore the division’s competitive standing.
Rookies Reshape Division Landscape With Immediate Impact
The Panthers desperately needed McMillan’s arrival. Quarterback Bryce Young has struggled through two difficult seasons, managing just six victories as a starter. The 2024 first-round selection Xavier Legette failed to develop into the premier target Young required.
McMillan represents something different entirely. The eighth overall selection has drawn comparisons to elite first-year receivers like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Mike Evans, all surpassing 1,000 receiving yards as rookies. McMillan joined that club with 70 receptions for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns.
His production created renewed interest in Carolina’s offense despite occasional disappearing acts and fewer spectacular catches than his Arizona college career suggested. Most importantly, McMillan gave Young a reliable weapon capable of explosive plays, with expectations building for continued growth in 2026.
Shough Energizes New Orleans Fanbase
The Saints saw extensive playing time from their 2025 draft class, with rookies Shough and offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. earning PWFA All-Rookie team recognition. However, no player generated more excitement than the 26-year-old quarterback.
Shough directed a four-game winning streak to close the season, including victories over Tampa Bay and Carolina. His performance offered hope to fans yearning for stability at the position since Drew Brees retired following the 2020 campaign.
Whether Shough represents the long-term answer remains uncertain, but his early results have been encouraging. A full offseason working with coach Kellen Moore, combined with additional weapons through free agency and the draft, could position New Orleans as legitimate contenders.
Tampa Bay Rookie Class Shows Mixed Results
Rookie Egbuka dominated early, accumulating 677 receiving yards and six touchdowns through Week 10 as the 19th overall pick. His production dipped when injuries forced him to carry the offensive load alone, contributing to Tampa Bay’s first season without a 1,000-yard receiver since 2011.
The struggle mirrors Evans’ sophomore campaign when injuries depleted the receiving corps and forced him to handle constant defensive attention. That adversity proved valuable for Evans’ development, and similar benefits may emerge for Tampa Bay’s rookies, including Egbuka.
Cornerback rookie Jacob Parrish also impressed despite standing just 5-foot-10. He played both nickel and outside corner due to injuries, finishing with two interceptions and a fumble recovery, including a crucial pick in the must-win finale against Carolina. Coach Todd Bowles considers him one of the team’s fastest rookies, particularly dangerous when blitzing.
Around Young Core
Pearce led all rookies with 10.5 sacks, the highest total for a first-year player since Micah Parsons recorded 13 for Dallas in 2021. Jalon Walker added 5.5 sacks, while Watts topped all rookies with five interceptions. Cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. performed well before an Achilles injury ended his November.
These performances explain why Atlanta fought to retain defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich despite dismissing head coach Raheem Morris. The franchise recorded 57 sacks, establishing a young defensive foundation that could define the team’s identity for years.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski favors ground-heavy offensive schemes, suggesting Atlanta may embrace a run-first approach supported by an intimidating defense.
Quarterback Questions Linger Despite Rookie Excitement
General manager Dan Morgan announced plans to exercise Young’s fifth-year option, but stopped short of committing to a long-term extension before his fourth season. Despite encouraging playoff performance in a 34-31 loss to Los Angeles, Carolina lost three straight games and four of five to end the year.
Young hasn’t posted consecutive quality performances or victories since mid-October. His Total QBR of 47.6 ranked 22nd leaguewide, reflecting persistent inconsistency. One week brought a franchise-record 448 passing yards; the next produced a season-low 14.2 Total QBR.
General manager Morgan acknowledged both the promise and limitations. Young demonstrated flashes of excellence against top competition, but team-wide consistency remained elusive. Development continues as chemistry builds with receivers, particularly the Panthers’ rookies, and surrounding talent improves.
New Orleans Tempers Expectations For Shough
Excitement surrounds Shough after his 5-4 record following Spencer Rattler’s benching, but general manager Mickey Loomis recently urged caution. Shough hasn’t completed a full season as starter and remains in development entering his second year.
Loomis emphasized realistic expectations while acknowledging genuine optimism. The Saints allowed Jake Haener and Hunter Dekkers to reach free agency, leaving Rattler as the only other quarterback currently under contract. Taysom Hill’s uncertain future adds potential volatility, particularly if he retires or Rattler gets traded.
Tampa Bay Questions Emerge After Injury-Plagued Campaign
Baker Mayfield would have rated higher a year ago after throwing 41 touchdowns in 2024, second-most in the league, while leading Tampa Bay to 10 wins. Early 2025 brought MVP-caliber play with multiple last-second comebacks, but shoulder and knee injuries took their toll.
Accuracy declined noticeably. Third-down performance suffered most dramatically, with off-target percentage jumping from 13.6% in 2024 to 22.4% in 2025. Josh Grizzard struggled replacing Liam Coen in playcalling duties, reducing favorable down-and-distance situations, though Mayfield bears responsibility for execution failures.
Atlanta Faces Uncertainty With Penix Injury
Organizational belief in Michael Penix Jr. remains strong. Team president Matt Ryan supports the young quarterback, while owner Arthur Blank recently reaffirmed Penix as the franchise cornerstone. His arm talent and composure suggest significant potential.
However, serious concerns exist. Penix tore his left ACL in Week 11 and could miss training camp or longer. He has required three ACL surgeries across eight seasons, having torn his right ACL twice in college. These durability questions loom large.
Kirk Cousins’ future appears limited due to his 2027 salary cap number, potentially forcing Atlanta into the market for a bridge quarterback while Penix recovers. The situation creates considerable uncertainty heading into the offseason, with championship aspirations hanging in the balance.
Source: ESPN
