A significant and potentially dangerous stretch of severe weather is unfolding across the Central Plains, with Texas and Oklahoma at the center of a multi-day outbreak that forecasters say could extend well into next week. The threat includes strong tornadoes, baseball-size hail, destructive winds and heavy rainfall capable of triggering widespread flooding.
The situation was already developing Thursday evening, when several tornadoes were confirmed in western and northwestern Oklahoma near the communities of Cleo Springs and Wakita. What came Thursday night was just a preview of what forecasters believe is building into a far more serious event.
Friday brings the heaviest threat
By Friday morning, strong thunderstorms were already pushing across the Central Plains, carrying risks of large hail, powerful winds and isolated tornadoes. But the more serious concern was expected to develop as the day went on.
Federal weather forecasters issued a level 3 severe weather threat covering a broad corridor stretching from northern Texas through southeast Nebraska and into southern Iowa. That designation signals the potential for numerous supercell thunderstorms, the rotating, organized storm structures most capable of producing violent tornadoes. Within that zone, forecasters specifically flagged the possibility of strong tornadoes reaching at least EF2 intensity, a threshold that brings winds exceeding 110 miles per hour and the potential for significant structural damage.
Hail the size of a baseball or larger was considered possible across much of the same region, and destructive thunderstorm winds rounded out the threat. Cities across a wide swath of the country, including Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, Chicago and St. Louis, all fell within areas of concern for at least some level of severe weather Friday.
Storms keep coming through the weekend
The outbreak does not wind down after Friday. Strong to severe storms remain possible Saturday across parts of the Ohio Valley, the Appalachian region and into central and eastern Texas. A stalling frontal boundary is expected to keep portions of the South unsettled Sunday, with additional storm chances lingering along that boundary.
The pattern then resets early to mid next week as a strong cold front pushes into the central and eastern United States, driven by a powerful low-pressure system tracking out of northern Mexico and into the Plains. Federal forecasters have already identified Tuesday as another day of elevated severe weather risk, with some of the same areas hit this week potentially facing a second round of significant storms.
Flooding adds to the toll
Beyond the tornado and hail threats, rainfall has already been causing serious problems across the region. Flash flooding earlier this week prompted water rescues on roads south of Dallas, and several inches of water impacted homes and businesses near Cincinnati, Ohio.
Dallas set a daily rainfall record Tuesday with 1.55 inches, surpassing a mark that had stood since 1937. St. Louis broke its own Tuesday record the same day with 1.74 inches, topping a record from 1935.
More heavy rain is expected with each round of storms moving through. Some areas from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys could pick up an additional three inches or more by the middle of next week, raising the risk of additional flash flooding across eastern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern Louisiana and into the Ohio Valley.
A drought getting soaked
As damaging as the rainfall can be in short bursts, much of the region is genuinely in need of moisture. Drought has persisted across large portions of the South throughout the winter, a pattern directly tied to the current La Niña climate cycle.
During a La Niña, stronger than normal trade winds push warm Pacific water toward the western Pacific, causing cooler water to rise along the eastern equatorial Pacific. That shift nudges the jet stream northward during winter months, leaving the South warmer and drier than usual while sending storms and cooler air farther north. The result has been a prolonged dry stretch across the southern tier of the country, one that the coming week of rainfall may begin to chip away at, even as it brings its own round of hazards.
