North Texas is heading into Mother’s Day with unsettled skies and a severe weather threat of storm that is expected to build throughout the afternoon and peak after dark. A powerful cold front sweeping across the region Sunday is forecast to produce large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of isolated flash flooding before clearing out overnight.
Saturday offered a preview of the contrast ahead. After a mostly cloudy morning, skies gradually cleared and temperatures climbed to around 87 degrees before dropping to 68 at night. Sunday will not be nearly as forgiving.
What to expect and when
The storm threat Sunday is not one single event but two distinct phases that will unfold across the day. The first phase begins with isolated storms developing just after noon. These early cells are expected to be discrete and individual, which forecasters say makes them more capable of producing large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Baseball-sized hail falls into that range and can cause significant damage to vehicles and structures.
As the afternoon gives way to evening, a cold front will push those individual storms together into a larger cluster or broken line. Once that consolidation happens, the primary threat shifts. Hail risk decreases and wind becomes the main concern, with gusts forecast to reach 70 to 75 mph in some areas. Winds at that speed are capable of downing trees, damaging roofs, and causing widespread power outages across the Metroplex.
The overall chance of precipitation on Sunday sits at 60%, with some forecast models pushing that figure to 80% as the front advances. Most of that rain will fall without incident, but there is a 10 to 15% chance that some locations could receive up to 4 inches of rain in a short period. Isolated flash flooding is possible in those areas.
The variable that forecasters are watching
One factor is still adding uncertainty to the forecast. Morning storm activity near the Red River could affect how quickly the cold front advances into the region, which in turn will determine where the most intense storms develop and how much warning time residents will have before conditions deteriorate.
The National Weather Service office in Fort Worth is monitoring that activity closely and will issue updated guidance as the front’s position becomes clearer through the morning hours. Residents planning outdoor activities for Mother’s Day are advised to check conditions before heading out and to have a plan in place if weather deteriorates during the afternoon.
A clear week follows the stormy weekend
The disruption is short-lived. Monday returns to mostly sunny skies with a high near 82 degrees and northeast winds running between 10 and 15 mph. Tuesday climbs to 87 with breezy southerly winds. Wednesday pushes into the upper 80s with increasing humidity but no significant storm threat in the extended forecast.
The week ahead looks considerably more straightforward than Today, but getting there requires navigating what forecasters are calling the most active weather day of the extended period. Anyone with plans that depend on being outdoors Sunday afternoon or evening should build in flexibility and stay connected to local forecast updates throughout the day.
Multiple ways to receive weather warnings are recommended, including local alerts, weather apps, and radio, particularly as the evening hours approach and storm activity is expected to be at its most intense.
