The Farmers’ Almanac has released its long range outlook for winter 2026 to 2027, and the forecast reads like a warning label. Expect a soggy south, a jittery north and a northeast that swings between rain and snow without much notice.
Caleb Weatherbee, the pen name used by generations of Almanac forecasters, built this year’s outlook on the publication’s old formula of sunspot activity, lunar cycles and historical weather patterns, blended with modern satellite data and current ocean readings. The Almanac has used some version of this method since 1818, making it the longest running seasonal forecast in North America.
A soaked south under El Niño
El Niño is expected to steer the season, and it tends to favor wetter conditions across the southern United States. Forecasters point to an active storm track running from Southern California and the desert Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. Residents there should brace for frequent storms, soggy fields and sudden cold intrusions. When that cold air collides with all the moisture, some systems could turn into sleet, freezing rain or heavy wet snow, and the southern Rockies may see a strong season for mountain snow.
Quick bursts define the northern winter
Much of the West, the northern Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes should land close to normal temperatures overall, but normal will not mean calm. Fast moving clipper systems, sharp cold snaps and short lived snow events are likely, with milder breaks scattered in between. The Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes could also see sudden snow squalls and gusty, bitterly cold stretches. Temperatures may swing between thaw and freeze often enough to make roads and fields unpredictable from one day to the next.
The northeast faces winter’s toughest puzzle
No region gets a trickier winter forecast than the northeast. Coastal communities may lean toward rain and mixed precipitation, while inland areas could get hit repeatedly with heavy, wet snow, especially in January and February. Small shifts in storm track or temperature could be the difference between a cold rain and a crippling ice event, so the Almanac suggests treating any specific forecast as a moving target until the storm actually arrives.
A changeable pattern out west
The Pacific Northwest is in line for a less reliable winter season this year, with conditions shifting more than usual from one storm to the next. The northern Plains and Upper Midwest could turn drier when the southern storm track takes over, though brief, intense shots of cold, wind and snow remain possible even during those drier stretches.
Where the wettest weather lands
The Almanac expects above normal precipitation stretching from California and the Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, driven by that active southern storm track. A second path may carry systems up the East Coast, adding rain, wintry mixes and snow from the mid Atlantic into New England. Because temperatures will often hover near the freezing mark, a small shift could turn a plain rain into an icy mess or a light snow into a real storm.
How reliable is the outlook
The Almanac claims 80% to 85% accuracy for its regional winter forecasts, though independent reviews suggest the real number runs lower. Even so, millions still check it every August as a rough guide for planning ahead, understanding that any forecast made months out carries real uncertainty.
